Global Energy Security Index 2026 Adam Smith Institute

The UK ranks 41st in the world and 5th in the G7 for energy security.

Wind, solar, tide and wave supplied 36% of the UK’s electricity in 2024. On dispatchable electricity, which runs whatever the weather, it ranks 175th of 187.

76.4 Overall index score, out of 100. Rated borderline.

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Methodology

The index scores every country on four components of energy security: dispatchability, diversity, import security and ability to pay. Each is scored from 0 to 100, and the overall index is their average. The 2026 index uses 2024 data and ranks the 187 countries and territories with a score on all four. Each step below sets out the formula, then works it through for the UK.

Component 1: Dispatchability

The share of a country’s electricity that can be generated on demand, whatever the weather. Hydro, nuclear, coal, gas, oil, geothermal, biomass and waste count in full; wind, solar, and tide and wave do not.

C_{1} = 100 \times \frac{G - G_{w} - G_{s} - G_{t}}{G}

(1)

where $G$ is total electricity generation and $G_{w}$ , $G_{s}$ and $G_{t}$ are generation from wind, solar, and tide and wave, all in billion kWh.

United Kingdom, 2024

The UK generated $G = 267.980$ billion kWh, of which $G_{w} = 82.855$ came from wind, $G_{s} = 14.796$ from solar and $G_{t} = 0.010$ from tide and wave, so

\begin{matrix} C_{1} & = 100 \times \frac{267.980 - 82.855 - 14.796 - 0.010}{267.980} \\ = 100 \times \frac{170.319}{267.980} = 63.56 \end{matrix}

Just under two-thirds of UK electricity was dispatchable, which ranks the UK on this component.

Data: EIA international data, electricity net generation, 2024. EIA figures are used unmodified, except Lesotho’s tide and wave generation, corrected to zero.

Component 2: Diversity

How evenly a country’s primary-energy consumption is spread across five categories: petroleum and other liquids, natural gas, coal, nuclear, and renewables and other. Concentration is measured with a Herfindahl–Hirschman index (HHI), then rescaled so that an even mix scores 100 and reliance on a single source scores 0.

HHI = \sum_{i = 1}^{5} s_{i}^{2}

(2)

C_{2} = 100 \times \frac{1 - HHI}{1 - 0.20}

(3)

where $s_{i}$ is the share of category $i$ in primary-energy consumption. An even split of 20% each gives $HHI = 0.20$ ; a single source gives $HHI = 1$ .

United Kingdom, 2024

Table 1. UK primary-energy consumption by source, 2024
Source	Quadrillion Btu	Share, $s_{i}$	$s_{i}^{2}$
Petroleum and other liquids	2.8541	0.4452	0.1982
Natural gas	2.3490	0.3664	0.1343
Coal	0.0572	0.0089	0.0001
Nuclear	0.3232	0.0504	0.0025
Renewables and other	0.8270	0.1290	0.0166
Total	6.4106	1.0000	0.3518
Figures are rounded; the HHI is calculated from unrounded shares.

The squared shares sum to $HHI = 0.3518$ , so

\begin{matrix} C_{2} & = 100 \times \frac{1 - 0.3518}{0.80} \\ = 100 \times \frac{0.6482}{0.80} = 81.03 \end{matrix}

which ranks the UK on this component.

Data: EIA international data, primary-energy consumption, 2024.

Component 3: Import security

How exposed a country is to imported energy. Net import dependence is weighted by a risk factor that rises when a country relies on few suppliers, when it is politically unstable itself, and when its suppliers are. A net exporter scores 100: it meets its own needs in aggregate, can re-route supply at home in a crisis, and can use its exports to help allies.

I = \max [0, \min (1, \frac{E_{c} - E_{p}}{E_{c}})]

(4)

H = \sum_{j} s_{j}^{2}

(5)

S = \sum_{j} s_{j} D_{j}

(6)

R = 0.40 + 0.20 H + 0.20 (1 - D) + 0.20 (1 - S)

(7)

C_{3} = 100 \times (1 - I R)

(8)

where $E_{c}$ and $E_{p}$ are primary-energy consumption and production; $s_{j}$ is supplier $j$ ’s share, by value, of the country’s imports across 31 energy categories; and $D$ is the country’s 2024 World Bank political stability score (WGI) divided by 100, with $D_{j}$ the same for supplier $j$ . So $I$ is net import dependence, $H$ the concentration of suppliers, $S$ their import-weighted stability and $R$ the import-risk factor. A net exporter has $I = 0$ .

United Kingdom, 2024

The UK consumed $E_{c} = 6.4106$ and produced $E_{p} = 3.5729$ quadrillion Btu (6.76 and 3.77 EJ), so

\begin{matrix} I & = \frac{6.4106 - 3.5729}{6.4106} = 0.4427 \end{matrix}

Its identified energy imports, worth $84.4bn, came from 115 suppliers. Norway alone supplied $26.3bn, a share of 0.3117, and the squared shares of all 115 sum to $H = 0.1674$ . The UK’s own stability score gives $D = 0.7030$ , and its suppliers’ import-weighted score gives $S = 0.6937$ . Then

\begin{matrix} R & = 0.40 + 0.20 (0.1674) + 0.20 (1 - 0.7030) + 0.20 (1 - 0.6937) \\ = 0.5541 \\ C_{3} & = 100 \times (1 - 0.4427 \times 0.5541) = 75.47 \end{matrix}

which ranks the UK on this component.

Data: EIA primary-energy production and consumption; CEPII BACI (HS2022) 2024 bilateral trade in 31 energy categories (ethanol, uranium and nuclear fuel, coal and lignite, manufactured gas, crude oil, refined petroleum, natural gas and LPG, petroleum coke, electricity, biodiesel, fuel wood, wood pellets, wood briquettes and charcoal); World Bank WGI Political Stability 2024. Import shares exclude trade recorded as ‘Other Asia, nes’, and S counts only suppliers with a WGI score. EIA puts Guyana’s energy production at almost nothing, despite its oil exports; it is treated as a net exporter.

Component 4: Ability to pay

GDP per capita, a proxy for a country’s ability to pay a premium for energy in a global shortage. Net exporters are scored too: if their own production stopped, they would have to buy on the world market. Taking logarithms damps the effect of a few very rich countries, and the result is scaled between the poorest country in the dataset (0) and the richest (100).

C_{4} = 100 \times \frac{\ln y - \ln y_{\min}}{\ln y_{\max} - \ln y_{\min}}

(9)

where $y$ is GDP per capita in constant 2015 US dollars. The lowest value in the dataset, $y_{\min}$ , is Burundi’s $268.70; the highest, $y_{\max}$ , is Bermuda’s $116,513.54.

United Kingdom, 2024

UK GDP per capita was $47,900.97, so

\begin{matrix} C_{4} & = 100 \times \frac{\ln 47,900.97 - \ln 268.70}{\ln 116,513.54 - \ln 268.70} \\ = 100 \times \frac{10.7769 - 5.5936}{11.6658 - 5.5936} \\ = 100 \times \frac{5.1833}{6.0722} = 85.36 \end{matrix}

which ranks the UK on this component.

Data: World Bank GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$), 2024.

Overall index

The four components carry equal weight:

Index = \frac{C_{1} + C_{2} + C_{3} + C_{4}}{4}

(10)

United Kingdom, 2024

Taking the UK’s component scores to four decimal places,

\begin{matrix} Index & = \frac{63.5567 + 81.0308 + 75.4706 + 85.3615}{4} = 76.35 \end{matrix}

which ranks the UK .

On the heat map, scores fall into fixed ten-point bands applied to every country: Most secure 90–100, Moderately secure 80–89.9, Borderline 70–79.9, Moderately insecure 60–69.9 and Most insecure below 60.

Units

Index inputs follow EIA units. The Energy Institute equivalents above use the conversion factors in the Statistical Review of World Energy 2026:

1 exajoule (EJ) = 948 trillion Btu, so 1 quadrillion Btu ≈ 1.055 EJ
1 billion kWh = 1 terawatt-hour (TWh); 1 EJ ≈ 278 TWh
1 kWh = 3,412 Btu = 3,600 kJ
1 billion m³ natural gas = 36 PJ = 0.86 million toe

Full rankings

All 187 countries and territories in rank order. Component columns show each country’s rank on that component. Select a column heading to sort, or a country to open it on the heat map.

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